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Perhaps von Mises’s most influential innovation was his requirement that the set of trials determining a probability be randomly patterned, in a sense more precise, and more controversial, than need be spelled out here (for the details, see Fine 1973). Consider, for simplicity’s sake, actual frequentism. The actual frequency account postulates a probability more or less wherever there is a probabilistic pattern, and holds that there is no more, physically, to the probability, than the pattern. In so doing it provides clear, though controversial, answers to the metaphysical questions rehearsed above.

The distinction will be useful in a number of places in the book; in Copyright © 2003 The President and Fellows of Harvard College43 28 1 Simple Behavior of Complex Systems what follows, for example, it is used to contrast the metaphysics and the physics of probability. A simple probability is a probability that is either explicitly mentioned in the fundamental laws of physics, or is a straightforward consequence of such probabilities. 19 A simplex probability is a probability that is in some sense entirely reducible to certain simple probabilities, but that depends on those simple probabilities in a complicated way.

And in my physics, I borrow some ideas from the metaphysics of probability; let me conclude by listing one feature of each of the three metaphysical theories described above that contributes to my own characterization of complex probability in chapter two. 11). From the propensity account, I take the idea that one cannot understand probability without understanding the intrinsic physical properties of the setup to which a probability is attached. 24). 34 The Structure of the Argument and a Guide for the Reader For two long chapters I will now ignore complex systems altogether.

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A Statistical Study of the Visual Double Stars in the Northern Sky (1915)(en)(5s) by Aitken R.J.

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